Panorama papers
By Hyppolite Ikome
According to political science analyst Jason Bigond, PhD, the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the U.S. military may be part of a broader strategy to exert pressure on other regimes considered dictatorial, including Cameroon. The country, led by Paul Biya for 43 years, is described as a state where freedoms are regularly violated and opponents are eliminated, imprisoned, or forced into exile—most notably Issa Tchiroma, who was declared the winner of the October 12, 2025 presidential election before being removed from power.
Bigond notes that the United States, alongside France, could encourage a political transition in such countries, similar to what is being considered in Venezuela following Maduro’s arrest. This would involve supporting the legitimate winner of a contested election and advocating for the formation of a national unity government. The analyst cites recent diplomatic contacts, including a call from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Paul Biya after his swearing-in, interpreted as a signal of diplomatic pressure.
According to the analysis, Paul Biya could anticipate this pressure by organizing a sovereign national conference to build political consensus and implement a three-year transition without his participation, thereby avoiding potential sanctions or international humiliation. The article highlights the similarities between the situations in Venezuela and Cameroon, with leaders being removed, exiled, or imprisoned and electoral legitimacy being contested.
Tensions between African governments and Western powers over governance, electoral transparency, and political transitions are recurring. Recent operations in Venezuela and statements by U.S. and French officials underscore the international community’s attention to regimes considered authoritarian, while sparking debate over external interference and national sovereignty.
